The intricate war dance among the U.S., the Saudis and Iran on the Houthi attack on Aramco oil installations may still not lead to a shooting war in West Asia. The Saudi defense ministry spokesman Turki al-Malki said the attack was unquestionably “sponsored” by Iran — quite different from outrightly holding Iran directly responsible. Even the U.S. is now using language such as Iran was “behind the attack,” and following up such statements with fresh sanctions on Iran. It is possible that the “locked and loaded” gun that President Trump had tweeted earlier may not now be fired.
Houthis have shown to the Saudis that their mastery over drones has created new conditions in the region. I wrote a few weeks back that drones and missiles with mobile launchers make it possible for weaker forces to inflict unacceptable damage on much stronger countries attacking them. This has shifted the strategic balance in various theaters of war, which countries with much greater firepower have yet to register. This is the new strategic balance between Houthis and Saudis; Hezbollah and Israel; and, on a wider scale, Iran-Hezbollah-Houthis and the U.S.-Israel-Saudis. None of the weaker forces have to win — they only need the ability to keep fighting while imposing unacceptable damage on the other side.
The damage done to the Aramco facilities in Abqaiq and Khurais by the Houthi attack has taken out 5.7 million barrels per day — or 50 percent — of the Saudi oil production. The Saudis currently produce 12 percent of the world’s oil, and any long-term damage to their oil installations has huge consequences for the world’s oil supply as well its price. In spite of the Saudis saying that they have enough stocks to meet the shortfall of supply and the U.S. releasing its strategic reserves of oil to the market, the oil price immediately jumped up 20 percent. With continuing U.S. illegal sanctions on Venezuela and Iran, the world is now critically dependent on oil from the Saudis, who have promised to increase production to meet the shortfall. Any hit on this supply will have global repercussions and drive the world into a new recession.
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