Just one year on from Belarus’ disputed presidential election, the tense situation in the country has ground into a stalemate between the government and opposition activists. The next move seems unclear even to the major players.
In the wake of the vote, activists failed to overthrow veteran leader Alexander Lukashenko, even though last fall it felt like another ‘spring’ revolution was inevitable. The contributing factors have been outlined repeatedly. First, the authorities opted for a ruthless crackdown and there was no noticeable discord among the security services organizing it. Secondly, Moscow offered support, sending a clear signal it would not tolerate a regime change in the country at present. Third, the response by the West was tepid – nothing compared to the overwhelming solidarity with protesters, backed up by material support, that we saw in Ukraine.
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